Topline
In recent weeks, former President Donald Trump has seen an expansion of his polling lead over President Joe Biden, as per multiple poll averages. Despite the close race, the momentum seems to be in Trump’s favor, with polls showing him gaining ground on Biden.
According to RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker, Trump now leads Biden by 3 points, marking a 1.5-point swing in Trump’s favor since the debate. Additionally, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows Trump leading by 3.2 points, with a significant increase from June 27.
The latest polls also indicate that Trump is up by four points in Morning Consult’s weekly registered voter surveys, with a two-point increase following an attempted assassination on Trump last weekend. These numbers come at a crucial time as the GOP convention showcased Trump’s presence, potentially influencing voter sentiments.
In a CBS News/YouGov survey, Trump led Biden among likely voters by 52% to 47%, despite leading by just two points in the first week of July. These numbers suggest a growing trend in Trump’s favor post-debate.
Further indicating Trump’s widening lead, a New York Times/Siena College survey and a Wall Street Journal survey found Biden trailing Trump by six points after the debate. Trump’s performance has been particularly notable in key states like Pennsylvania and Virginia, where the race has significantly tightened.
While the polls reflect Trump’s surge, there are calls for Biden to drop out of the race, with concerns over his age and performance. The ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll highlighted that, despite being tied with Trump among registered voters, 67% believe Biden should withdraw from the race due to age concerns.
Overall, the recent polling data suggests a significant shift in the dynamics of the 2024 election, with Trump gaining momentum and Biden facing increasing pressure to step down. As the race continues to evolve, the upcoming campaign events and debates are likely to play a crucial role in shaping voter perceptions and decisions. Stay tuned for more updates on this closely watched race.
