2024 Swing-State Surveys: Biden’s Debate Performance and Voter Perceptions
In the world of business, politics, and economics, the intersection of these three areas can often shape the trajectory of countries and economies worldwide. The latest data and analysis from Morning Consult provide crucial insights into how these factors are playing out in key swing states ahead of the November elections.
President Joe Biden’s recent debate performance may have raised concerns about his age and abilities, but our surveys show that the landscape in key swing states remains relatively unchanged. Despite leading in Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden is not enjoying the same advantage in states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Interestingly, Biden continues to underperform Trump among each candidate’s respective 2020 voters and their own party bases, while independent voters remain evenly split between the two. The lack of significant movement against Biden in key states mirrors the national level, where his standing has remained relatively stable despite a substantial ad campaign.
One of the most striking findings from our surveys is the growing importance of the vice presidential nominee in voters’ minds. With concerns about Biden’s age and abilities persisting, more voters are placing emphasis on the running-mate selection. In fact, a significant portion of swing-state voters believe that the candidates’ respective ages make their running-mate “much more important” than in prior elections.
Additionally, our research highlights the mixed sentiments towards Vice President Kamala Harris, who is viewed more favorably than both Biden and Trump in the swing-state map. This underscores the potential significance of the vice presidential selection in shaping voters’ perceptions and influencing the outcome of the election.
Despite the alarm raised by some Democratic leaders and the media following Biden’s debate performance, our data suggests that these concerns have not significantly altered the core dynamics of the election. As the race progresses, the focus on each candidate’s running mate is likely to intensify, potentially playing a crucial role in determining the outcome in November.
In conclusion, while the debate over Biden’s age and abilities remains a point of contention, the latest data underscores the resilience of voters’ perceptions and the growing importance of vice presidential selections in shaping the electoral landscape. Stay informed with the latest data and analysis from Morning Consult to gain valuable insights into how business, politics, and economics intersect in the upcoming election. Sign up now to stay ahead of the curve.
